Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on workplace transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the home-delivery sector.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to use mathematical models of SARS-COV-2 to assess the potential efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions on transmission in the parcel delivery and logistics sector. METHODS: We devloped a network-based model of workplace contacts based on data and consultations from companies in the parcel delivery and logistics sectors. We used these in stochastic simulations of disease transmission to predict the probability of workplace outbreaks in this settings. Individuals in the model have different viral load trajectories based on SARS-CoV-2 in-host dynamics, which couple to their infectiousness and test positive probability over time, in order to determine the impact of testing and isolation measures. RESULTS: The baseline model (without any interventions) showed different workplace infection rates for staff in different job roles. Based on our assumptions of contact patterns in the parcel delivery work setting we found that when a delivery driver was the index case, on average they infect only 0.14 other employees, while for warehouse and office workers this went up to 0.65 and 2.24 respectively. In the LIDD setting this was predicted to be 1.40, 0.98, and 1.34 respectively. Nonetheless, the vast majority of simulations resulted in 0 secondary cases among customers (even without contact-free delivery). Our results showed that a combination of social distancing, office staff working from home, and fixed driver pairings (all interventions carried out by the companies we consulted) reduce the risk of workplace outbreaks by 3-4 times. CONCLUSION: This work suggests that, without interventions, significant transmission could have occured in these workplaces, but that these posed minimal risk to customers. We found that identifying and isolating regular close-contacts of infectious individuals (i.e. house-share, carpools, or delivery pairs) is an efficient measure for stopping workplace outbreaks. Regular testing can make these isolation measures even more effective but also increases the number of staff isolating at one time. It is therefore more efficient to use these isolation measures in addition to social distancing and contact reduction interventions, rather than instead of, as these reduce both transmission and the number of people needing to isolate at one time.

The Impact of Corticosteroids on the Outcome of Fungal Disease: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Purpose of Review: Corticosteroids have a complex relationship with fungal disease - risk for many, benefit for others. This systematic review aims to address the effect of corticosteroids on mortality and visual outcome in different fungal diseases. Recent Findings: Corticosteroids are a risk factor of aspergillosis for patients who have COVID-19, and they also led to a worse outcome. Similarity, corticosteroids are a risk factor for candidemia and mucormycosis. Some researchers reported that using topical corticosteroid in keratitis was associated with worse visual outcome if fungal keratitis. Some studies showed that corticosteroids are linked to a negative outcome for non-HIV patients with Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP), in contrast to those with HIV and PCP. Summary: In 59 references, we found that corticosteroid therapy showed a worse clinical outcome in invasive aspergillosis (IA) (HR: 2.50, 95%CI: 1.89-3.31, p < 0.001) and chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA) (HR: 2.74, 95%CI: 1.48-5.06, p = 0.001), PCP without HIV infection (OR: 1.29, 95%CI: 1.09-1.53, p = 0.003), invasive candidiasis and candidaemia (OR: 2.13, 95%CI: 1.85-2.46, p < 0.001), mucormycosis (OR: 4.19, 95%CI: 1.74-10.05, p = 0.001) and early in the course of fungal keratitis (OR: 2.99, 95%CI: 1.14-7.84, p = 0.026). There was equivocal outcome in cryptococcal meningoencephalitis in AIDS and primary coccidioidomycosis, while corticosteroid therapy showed a better outcome in PCP in HIV-infected patients (RR: 0.62, 95%CI: 0.46-0.83, p=0.001) and fungal keratitis patients after keratoplasty surgery (OR: 0.01, 95%CI: 0.00-0.41, p = 0.041) and probably in cryptococcal meningoencephalitis in non-immunocompromised patients. A sub-analysis in invasive aspergillosis and CPA showed that use of more than 2 mg/kg/day of prednisolone equivalents per day is a significant factor in increasing mortality (HR: 2.94, 95%CI: 2.13-4.05, p < 0.001). Corticosteroid therapy during invasive fungal disease was usually associated with a slightly or greatly increased mortality or worse visual outcome (in fungal keratitis), with two disease exceptions. Avoiding the addition of corticosteroids, or minimising dose and duration in those who require them, is likely to improve the outcome of most life- and vision-threatening fungal diseases. This review provides a cornerstone for further research in exploring the accuracy of suitable dose and duration of corticosteroids treatment in fungal diseases. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12281-023-00456-2.

Are platelet volume indices of clinical use in COVID-19? A systematic review.

Background: The incidence of thrombotic complications is high in COVID-19 patients with severe disease. As key regulators of thrombus formation, platelets likely play a crucial role as mediators of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 associated pathogenesis. Studies have reported that parameters reflecting platelet size, known as platelet volume indices (PVI), are raised in patients with thrombosis and can predict poor outcomes. This systematic review evaluates the potential for PVI to be used as a predictor of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Methods: English and Chinese databases were searched electronically to identify studies reporting data on mean platelet volume, platelet distribution width or platelet-large cell ratio in COVID-19 patients. Included articles underwent a quality rating and descriptive narrative analysis. Results: Thirty-two studies were included in the systematic review. The results show a general trend for PVI to be raised in severe COVID-19 patients and non-survivors, with 14 studies reporting significant differences of baseline PVI between severe and mild disease. Nonetheless, longitudinal studies showed varying PVI trends over the course of the disease and evidence for PVI to be associated with disease progression was limited. The quality rating of 12 studies was poor, 16 were rated fair and four were good. Most studies were retrospective in design, used small study populations and did not consider confounding factors that influence platelet volume. Studies also contained technical flaws in PVI measurement, limiting the reliability of the results. Conclusion: The evidence on the clinical usefulness of PVI is greatly limited by the lack of prospective evaluation, together with technical problems in measuring PVI. Carefully designed prospective studies are warranted. Systematic review registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=304305, identifier CRD42022304305.

Are platelet volume indices of clinical use in COVID-19? A systematic review

Background The incidence of thrombotic complications is high in COVID-19 patients with severe disease. As key regulators of thrombus formation, platelets likely play a crucial role as mediators of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 associated pathogenesis. Studies have reported that parameters reflecting platelet size, known as platelet volume indices (PVI), are raised in patients with thrombosis and can predict poor outcomes. This systematic review evaluates the potential for PVI to be used as a predictor of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Methods English and Chinese databases were searched electronically to identify studies reporting data on mean platelet volume, platelet distribution width or platelet-large cell ratio in COVID-19 patients. Included articles underwent a quality rating and descriptive narrative analysis. Results Thirty-two studies were included in the systematic review. The results show a general trend for PVI to be raised in severe COVID-19 patients and non-survivors, with 14 studies reporting significant differences of baseline PVI between severe and mild disease. Nonetheless, longitudinal studies showed varying PVI trends over the course of the disease and evidence for PVI to be associated with disease progression was limited. The quality rating of 12 studies was poor, 16 were rated fair and four were good. Most studies were retrospective in design, used small study populations and did not consider confounding factors that influence platelet volume. Studies also contained technical flaws in PVI measurement, limiting the reliability of the results. Conclusion The evidence on the clinical usefulness of PVI is greatly limited by the lack of prospective evaluation, together with technical problems in measuring PVI. Carefully designed prospective studies are warranted. Systematic review registration https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=304305, identifier CRD42022304305.

Agility and Sustainability: A Qualitative Evaluation of COVID-19 Non-pharmaceutical Interventions in the UK Logistics Sector.

Background: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 triggered a chain of public health responses that radically changed our way of living and working. Non-healthcare sectors, such as the logistics sector, play a key role in such responses. This research aims to qualitatively evaluate the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented in the UK logistics sector during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We conducted nine semi-structured interviews in July-August 2020 and May-June 2021. In total 11 interviewees represented six companies occupying a range of positions in the UK's logistics sector, including takeaway food delivery, large and small goods delivery and home appliance installation, and logistics technology providers. Thematic analysis was completed using NVivo12. Codes relevant to NPIs were grouped into themes and mapped deductively onto an adapted Hierarchy of Control (HoC) framework, focusing on delivery workers. Codes relevant to the implementation process of NPIs were grouped into themes/subthemes to identify key characteristics of rapid responses, and barriers and facilitators. Results: HoC analysis suggests the sector has implemented a wide range of risk mitigation measures, with each company developing their own portfolio of measures. Contact-free delivery was the most commonly implemented measure and perceived effective. The other implemented measures included social distancing, internal contact tracing, communication and collaboration with other key stakeholders of the sector. Process evaluation identified facilitators of rapid responses including capacity to develop interventions internally, localized government support, strong external mandates, effective communication, leadership support and financial support for self-isolation, while barriers included unclear government guidance, shortage of testing capacity and supply, high costs and diversified language and cultural backgrounds. Main sustainability issues included compliance fatigue, and the possible mental health impacts of a prolonged rapid response. Conclusions: This research identified drivers and obstacles of rapid implementation of NPIs in response to a respiratory infection pandemic. Existing implementation process models do not consider speed to respond and the absence or lack of guidance in emergency situations such as the COVID-19. We recommend the development of a rapid response model to inform the design of effective and sustainable infection prevention and control policies and to focus future research priorities.

Evaluation of multiple open-source deep learning models for detecting and grading COVID-19 on chest radiographs.

Purpose: Chest x-rays are complex to report accurately. Viral pneumonia is often subtle in its radiological appearance. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid triage of cases and exclusion of other pathologies with artificial intelligence (AI) can assist over-stretched radiology departments. We aim to validate three open-source AI models on an external test set. Approach: We tested three open-source deep learning models, COVID-Net, COVIDNet-S-GEO, and CheXNet for their ability to detect COVID-19 pneumonia and to determine its severity using 129 chest x-rays from two different vendors Phillips and Agfa. Results: All three models detected COVID-19 pneumonia (AUCs from 0.666 to 0.778). Only the COVID Net-S-GEO and CheXNet models performed well on severity scoring (Pearson's r 0.927 and 0.833, respectively); COVID-Net only performed well at either task on images taken with a Philips machine (AUC 0.735) and not an Agfa machine (AUC 0.598). Conclusions: Chest x-ray triage using existing machine learning models for COVID-19 pneumonia can be successfully implemented using open-source AI models. Evaluation of the model using local x-ray machines and protocols is highly recommended before implementation to avoid vendor or protocol dependent bias.

Risk factors associated with respiratory infectious disease-related presenteeism: a rapid review.

BACKGROUND: Workplace transmission is a significant contributor to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreaks. Previous studies have found that infectious illness presenteeism could contribute to outbreaks in occupational settings and identified multiple occupational and organisational risk factors. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, it is imperative to investigate presenteeism particularly in relation to respiratory infectious disease (RID). Hence, this rapid review aims to determine the prevalence of RID-related presenteeism, including COVID-19, and examines the reported reasons and associated risk factors. METHODS: The review followed a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) search approach and focused on studies published in English and Chinese. Database searches included MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database (CNKI) and preprint databases MedRxiv and BioRxiv. RESULTS: The search yielded 54 studies, of which four investigated COVID-19-related presenteeism. Prevalence of work presenteeism ranged from 14.1 to 55% for confirmed RID, and 6.6 to 100% for those working with suspected or subclinical RID. The included studies demonstrated that RID-related presenteeism is associated with occupation, sick pay policy, age, gender, health behaviour and perception, vaccination, peer pressure and organisational factors such as presenteeism culture. CONCLUSIONS: This review demonstrates that presenteeism or non-adherence to isolation guidance is a real concern and can contribute to workplace transmissions and outbreaks. Policies which would support workers financially and improve productivity, should include a range of effective non-pharmaceutical inventions such as workplace testing, promoting occupational health services, reviewing pay and bonus schemes and clear messaging to encourage workers to stay at home when ill. Future research should focus on the more vulnerable and precarious occupational groups, and their inter-relationships, to develop comprehensive intervention programs to reduce RID-related presenteeism.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV care in Guatemala.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and deaths from opportunistic infections in Guatemala. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with HIV at a referral clinic (Clinica Familiar Luis Angel García, CFLAG), as well as the disruption of services at a diagnostic laboratory hub (DLH) which provides diagnosis for opportunistic infections to a network of 13 HIV healthcare facilities. Comparative analysis was undertaken using the months March-August from two different time periods: (i) pre-COVID-19 (2017-2019); and (ii) during the COVID-19 period (2020). RESULTS: During the COVID-19 period, 7360 HIV tests were performed at Clinica Familiar Luis Angel García, compared with an average of 16,218 tests in the pre-COVID-19 period; a reduction of 54.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 53.8-55.4%],Deaths from opportunistic infections at 90 days were 10.7% higher in 2020 compared with 2019 (27.3% vs 16.6%; P = 0.05). Clinical samples sent to the DLH for diagnosis of opportunistic infections decreased by 43.7% in 2020 (95% CI 41.0-46.2%). CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic is having a substantial impact on HIV care in Guatemala. Diagnostic services for HIV have been severely affected and deaths from opportunistic infections have increased. The lessons learnt must guide the introduction of strategies to reduce the impact of the pandemic.

Determining the burden of fungal infections in Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe currently faces several healthcare challenges, most notably HIV and associated infections including tuberculosis (TB), malaria and recently outbreaks of cholera, typhoid fever and COVID-19. Fungal infections, which are also a major public health threat, receive considerably less attention. Consequently, there is dearth of data regarding the burden of fungal diseases in the country. We estimated the burden of fungal diseases in Zimbabwe based on published literature and 'at-risk' populations (HIV/AIDS patients, survivors of pulmonary TB, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and patients receiving critical care) using previously described methods. Where there was no data for Zimbabwe, regional, or international data was used. Our study revealed that approximately 14.9% of Zimbabweans suffer from fungal infections annually, with 80% having tinea capitis. The annual incidence of cryptococcal meningitis and Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia in HIV/AIDS were estimated at 41/100,000 and 63/100,000, respectively. The estimated prevalence of recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (RVVC) was 2,739/100,000. The estimated burden of fungal diseases in Zimbabwe is high in comparison to other African countries, highlighting the urgent need for increased awareness and surveillance to improve diagnosis and management.

Non-infectious status indicated by detectable IgG antibody to SARS-CoV-2.

A key tenet of protection from infection for dentists is to know who is not infectious. The evidence base regarding protection from respiratory pathogens in dentistry is poor. Those with a positive SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody are non-infectious (>99% certainty) and can be safely treated with good universal precautions, even for aerosol generating procedures. Viral infectivity with SARS-CoV-2 lasts eight days, unlike viral polymerase chain reaction (PCR) swab tests which can persist for as long as seven weeks. SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody becomes detectable from 11 days after infection. SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies are usually neutralising against the virus and their direct antiviral activity was partially demonstrated in 33,000 patients with COVID-19 treated with convalescent plasma in the USA. So, a positive SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody is a much more accurate determination of infectiousness than a repeat PCR which is only 70% sensitive. It remains to be seen whether SARS-Cov-2 vaccine responses include protective IgG titres and, once vaccines become widespread, can be used to assist decision-making on appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) in dentistry.